Vistra Corp — AI supply-chain exposure

Vistra is one of the largest competitive power producers in the US, running a fleet of nuclear, natural-gas, solar, and battery-storage assets. In the AI value chain it sits at the very bottom layer — electricity — the input every data centre consumes before a single chip runs. It has signed long, multi-decade nuclear power-purchase agreements with hyperscalers, contracting firm, carbon-free output directly against AI data-centre demand rather than selling it all into the open market.

Its structural hook is scarce, dispatchable, always-on power. AI factories need enormous, uninterrupted electricity, and nuclear is one of the few sources that delivers it around the clock without emissions — which is why hyperscalers are locking up existing reactors under decades-long terms. That converts a merchant generator's most volatile asset into predictable, contracted cash flow, and gives Vistra leverage over a genuine bottleneck, since grid capacity is now one of the hardest links to add. The model weights it highly because power, not silicon, is increasingly the binding constraint on the build-out.